top of page
  • Writer's pictureDarren Cody

Navigating Marketplace Success: A Guide for Non-Technical Founders on Evidence-Driven vs. Data-Drive


Nick, our seasoned non-technical founder, recently grappled with the Flounder Effect, a challenge many entrepreneurs encounter in their journey. For those unfamiliar, the Flounder Effect describes the struggle to make decisions effectively, often stemming from biases and unchecked egos. Our recent post explored Nick's experience with this phenomenon, revealing a crucial moment in his entrepreneurial path.

Now, we embark on a journey to uncover decision-making methods that can liberate Nick from biases and, perhaps more importantly, his ego. Picture Nick, an expert in the marketplace domain he's creating, facing the dual-edged sword of his expertise. While it brings many advantages, it can also sow the seeds of downfall. A false sense of confidence might lead Nick to believe he instinctively knows the right direction for his platform, only to realize in production that his beliefs can diverge drastically from user needs or market readiness.

This brings us to the pivotal crossroads of decision-making: the choice between relying on instinct and embracing a more informed approach through data and evidence. In this exploration, we'll delve into these methods, akin to the different product development methodologies Nick might have encountered – Agile, SCRUM, Waterfall, and the hybrid versions in between.

Imagine Nick as a scientist experimenting. In a simplified version, he informs himself on the topic, forms a hypothesis, tests it, adjusts based on the results, and publishes his experiment's findings. This scientific approach, whether applied to product development or marketplace management, holds the key to navigating the complexities of decision-making.

Join us as we unravel the nuances of evidence-driven and data-driven decision-making, offering insights that resonate with non-technical founders like Nick, striving to lead their marketplaces with clarity and purpose.

Simplifying The Channels

Anchored By Data

In the dynamic landscape of Nick's marketplace, where connecting people with professional services is the core mission, a robust data strategy becomes the anchor for sustainable growth. Especially when navigating the complexities of supply acquisition, the role of data takes center stage.

Understanding Supply Acquisition:

For Nick, the strategy begins with a thoughtful focus on building a robust supply network. The sequence of bringing in the demand and generating revenue hinges significantly on how effectively the supply side is curated.

Leveraging Data in Supply Acquisition:

An effective model goes beyond conventional strategies, advocating for the incorporation of extensive data to guide acquisition decisions. This is not a static plan but a living model that evolves with market realities, gaining strength and precision the longer it is used.

Key Data Points in Action:

In the pre-launch phase, the strategy comes to life with inputs from market research and user interviews. Consider the power of these key data points:

Keyword Volume Research:

Uncover the language that resonates most with potential service providers.

Competitor Traffic Analysis:

Gain insights into what works for competitors and where opportunities lie.

Local Market Size:

Understand the dynamics of the local market to tailor the acquisition strategy.

Demographic and Sociographic Data:

Dive deep into the characteristics and behaviors of the target audience.

The Living Data Strategy:

As Nick refines his pre-launch strategy using these data points, he establishes a living data strategy. This dynamic approach adapts to changing market conditions, ensuring a responsive and effective acquisition model.

In the following sections, we'll delve into the broader concept of a "Data Strategy," exploring how Nick can weave data seamlessly into the fabric of his marketplace management, making informed decisions a cornerstone of his entrepreneurial journey. Let’s see Nick navigate the terrain where data becomes not just information but a strategic asset for marketplace success.

Low Technical Tools To Leverage

Nick would be able to incorporate low-code or no-code tools into his marketplace stack to start collecting more and more information which will later prove invaluable to the company.

Google Analytics:

Use Case: Website and User Behavior Analysis

Purpose: Google Analytics provides insights into website traffic, user behavior, and engagement. Nick can track key metrics, such as page views, bounce rates, and user demographics, to make informed decisions about his online platform.

Simple CRM Tools:

Use Case: Customer Relationship Management

Benefits: Basic CRM tools can help Nick manage interactions with service providers, track communications, and analyze customer data. They offer a user-friendly interface without the complexity of more advanced CRM systems.

Manual Heatmaps and User Recording (e.g., Hotjar):

Use Case: User Experience Analysis

Benefits: Hotjar and similar tools allow Nick to create manual heatmaps and record user sessions. While not as automated as more advanced tools, this approach provides valuable insights into how users interact with the platform.

Product Adoption (Pendo)

Use Case: Monitor Product Usage

Benefits: Pendo provides comprehensive analytics on how users navigate and engage with the platform. Nick can gain insights into user paths, time spent on specific pages, and overall product usage, helping him make informed decisions.

Propelled By Evidence: Unlocking the Power of Informed Choices

In the dynamic realm of marketplace leadership, decisions often stand at the crossroads between intuition and evidence. For Nick, our visionary non-technical founder, the journey of navigating his marketplace is not merely guided by gut feelings or ego but propelled by the weight of evidence. In this section, we strengthen our understanding of the transformative method of evidence-driven decision-making, where firsthand stories make room for profound insights, and intuition is complemented by a foundation of empirical understanding.

As Nick sets sail in the vast sea of choices, evidence becomes his guiding North Star. This is not decision-making in the dark; this is navigating with a compass forged from data, user feedback, and market realities. Join us on a voyage into the heart of evidence-driven choices, where each decision is not just a step forward but a purposeful stride fueled by the light of understanding. Step into a domain where decisions aren't merely crafted; they are propelled forward by the force of evidence.

Navigating Using Insights

In the navigation of evidence-driven decision-making, our compass isn't a solitary needle but a harmonious symphony of qualitative winds and quantitative currents. Much like a seasoned sailor skillfully reads the winds and charts the currents, our approach seamlessly integrates the depth of user sentiments with the precision of numerical data. In this section, we explore the synergy of qualitative insights and quantitative metrics, forging a balanced compass that guides Nick, our non-technical founder, through the diverse seas of marketplace management.

Set sail on a journey into the heart of this balanced compass, where anecdotes and user stories dance alongside hard numbers and statistical trends. Here, evidence is not a singular note but a sea shanty, composed of the tales of user experiences and the rhythms of data points. Join us as we unravel the intricacies of this artful fusion, showcasing how a balanced compass becomes the beacon for informed decision-making in the vast expanse of the marketplace.

The Confluence of User Stories and Data Streams


User Surveys and Feedback Platforms

Use Case: Gathering In-Depth User Insights

Purpose: These platforms, such as SurveyMonkey or Typeform, allow Nick to design surveys and collect qualitative feedback directly from users. The purpose is to understand user sentiments, preferences, and pain points, enriching the evidence pool with nuanced insights.

Heatmaps and Session Recording Tools

Use Case: Visualizing User Interactions

Purpose: Platforms like Hotjar enable Nick to create heatmaps and record user sessions. By visualizing where users click, scroll, or linger, Nick gains a visual narrative of user behavior, supplementing quantitative data with qualitative context.

Customer Support Analytics (e.g., Zendesk)

Use Case: Mining Support Interactions

Purpose: Analyzing customer support interactions provides Nick with a goldmine of qualitative data. By understanding user queries, concerns, and feedback, Nick gains valuable insights into user pain points, desires, and areas for improvement.


User Interviews and Focus Groups

Use Case: In-Depth Qualitative Exploration

Purpose: Conducting one-on-one interviews or focus groups allows Nick to dive deep into user experiences. By directly engaging with users, he can uncover nuanced perspectives, motivations, and uncover insights that might not emerge through other methods.

Usability Testing

Use Case: Evaluating User Interaction

Purpose: Usability testing, whether conducted in-person or remotely, enables Nick to observe users interacting with his platform. By witnessing firsthand how users navigate and respond, Nick gains actionable insights into areas for improvement and optimization.

Competitor Analysis

Use Case: Benchmarking Against Market Standards

Purpose: Analyzing competitors provides qualitative benchmarks. Nick can observe what works well in competing platforms, understand user expectations, and identify unique selling propositions that can inform strategic decisions.

New and Shiney or Improve What You Have

Nick and his trusted team are in the beginning stages of planning the next quarter’s worth of Product, Design, and Development resources. They’ve funneled it down to two choices; improve their Chat feature or create a Video Calling feature. We will see a prime example of how Nick and his team can use evidence to determine their next strides.

Heatmaps and Session Recording Tools


Nick utilizes heatmaps to visualize user interactions with the messaging feature.

Session recording tools capture real user sessions, providing a detailed view of how users navigate and engage with the messaging functionality.


Heatmaps highlight that users frequently click on the messaging feature but show less engagement with certain elements within the interface.

Session recordings reveal that users often struggle to find and use specific features within the messaging tool, leading to user frustration.

Decision Influence:

The hard evidence from heatmaps and session recordings guides Nick's decision by showing him exactly where users encounter challenges within the existing messaging feature.

Nick decides that, instead of introducing a new feature, he will allocate resources to improve the user experience of the messaging tool based on the identified pain points.

Usability Testing


Nick conducts usability testing sessions focused on the existing messaging feature, involving real users who provide feedback on the feature's usability.


Usability testing reveals specific pain points within the messaging feature, such as difficulties in attaching files and confusion about message organization.

Users express a strong preference for an enhanced and more intuitive messaging experience.

Decision Influence:

The hard evidence from usability testing reinforces the findings from the heatmaps and session recordings, providing a comprehensive understanding of user struggles.

Nick decides to allocate resources to address the identified issues within the messaging feature, ensuring that improvements align with user expectations.

In-App Feedback Forms


Nick strategically places in-app feedback forms within the messaging tool, prompting users to provide input on their user experience.


Users submit feedback expressing appreciation for the messaging feature's usefulness but point out specific areas that could be enhanced for better usability.

Common themes emerge from the feedback, emphasizing the importance of refining the existing messaging feature.

Decision Influence:

The hard evidence gathered from in-app feedback forms aligns with insights from heatmaps and usability testing, providing additional user perspectives.

Nick decides to prioritize the enhancement of the messaging feature, leveraging the in-app feedback as a crucial component of the decision-making process.

In this comprehensive approach, Nick utilizes Tool 2 (Heatmaps and Session Recording Tools) to identify usability issues, Method 2 (Usability Testing) to validate and deepen insights, and Method 4 (In-App Feedback Forms) to capture real-time user sentiments. These tools and methods collectively provide hard evidence that guides Nick's decision to prioritize improving the existing messaging feature over developing a new one.

Relying Solely on Data:

Quantitative Focus:

Data-driven decision-making typically relies on quantitative metrics, such as engagement rates, click-through rates, and other numerical data points.It might indicate that users frequently engage with the messaging feature but may not provide detailed insights into why certain elements within the feature are less engaging.

Limited Context:

Purely relying on data might lack the context behind user behaviors. For example, while it shows where users click, it may not reveal if those clicks result in successful interactions or if users encounter difficulties.

Possibility of Blind Spots:

Depending solely on data might lead to potential blind spots. It may not uncover specific pain points or usability issues within the messaging feature that users are facing, potentially missing crucial insights.

Comprehensive Approach with Tools and Methods:

Qualitative Insights:

Tools and methods, such as heatmaps, session recordings, usability testing, and in-app feedback forms, provide qualitative insights. They reveal not just what users do but also why they do it and how they experience the product.

User-Centric Understanding:

The comprehensive approach allows Nick to understand the user experience from the user's perspective. It goes beyond numerical data to capture user sentiments, preferences, and pain points, providing a more holistic understanding.

Identification of Root Causes:

The combination of tools and methods helps identify the root causes of issues within the messaging feature. For instance, usability testing can reveal specific steps where users encounter difficulties, guiding Nick to targeted improvements.

Real-Time Feedback:

In-app feedback forms offer real-time feedback, allowing Nick to capture users' immediate sentiments. This adds a dynamic and timely dimension to decision-making, ensuring that the current state of user satisfaction is considered.

User Validation:

Usability testing serves as a validation step, confirming whether the issues identified in heatmaps align with actual user struggles. This ensures that decisions are grounded in both observed behaviors and user-reported experiences.

In Summary

While data is crucial for understanding user behaviors at a high level, a comprehensive approach with qualitative tools and methods enriches decision-making by providing deeper insights into user experiences. It allows Nick to not only identify areas for improvement but also understand the nuances of user interactions and preferences. This combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches creates a more well-rounded understanding, enabling Nick to make informed decisions that align with the holistic needs of his users.

A Break From Sailing - Real Example

Airbnb's Trust and Safety Decision

In the ever-evolving landscape of online marketplaces, the delicate balance between rapid growth and user trust poses a formidable challenge. Through the looking glass, we get a close view of the Airbnb saga, a platform that faced a pivotal decision regarding user trust and safety. In this exploration, we unveil three distinct paths that Airbnb could have taken: one driven solely by data, the second guided by a comprehensive use of evidence, and the third revealing the real and true result of the evidence-driven approach.


Reports of fraudulent listings, security concerns, and incidents raised questions about the safety of Airbnb's platform.

Decision Dilemma:

Airbnb had to balance the need for rapid growth with the imperative to address trust and safety concerns to maintain user confidence.

Relying Solely on Data


Airbnb exclusively relies on quantitative metrics such as user engagement data, booking numbers, and incident reports.


The data indicates a spike in bookings and overall user engagement, despite an increase in reported incidents. Airbnb decides to prioritize growth and overlooks the significance of user trust and safety concerns.


Short-Term Gain: Airbnb experiences short-term growth and financial success as a result of prioritizing expansion over trust and safety.

Long-Term Consequences: Over time, incidents and negative user experiences accumulate, leading to a tarnished reputation and a decline in user trust. This may result in regulatory challenges and a loss of user loyalty.

Building a Case With Evidence


Airbnb takes a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative data with qualitative evidence.


The Product team analyze not only the data but also user stories, incident reports, and feedback. They identify a clear pattern of user concerns related to safety and trust.


Investment in Trust and Safety: Airbnb allocates significant resources, $150 million, to address trust and safety concerns on the platform.

Improved User Trust: The evidence-driven decision results in enhanced safety measures, identity verification, and better screening processes. This, in turn, rebuilds user trust and establishes Airbnb as a platform committed to user safety.


bottom of page